SCC Preview: Pep Boys Auto 500 at Atlanta

The NASCAR season is also winding to a close, and I went on the lookout for a baseball equivalent of what the season looks like over the final four weeks. It's not the beginning of the playoffs, when everyone is on relatively equal ground. I thought maybe it was a little bit like the Red Sox's plight in Game 5 of the ALCS, when they were down 7-0 with seven outs to go. That didn't quite seem right either, although it's closer. I finally settled on the 2004 ALCS. The NASCAR season is now at the same point that series was after Game 3. Jimmie Johnson, playing the role of the New York Yankees, just waxed the field, leading the most laps at Martinsville, much like the Yanks had blown out the Sox 19-8 in Game 3 to take a 3-0 series lead. Johnson now holds a 149-point lead over Greg Biffle.

What does this mean going forward? Well, the Red Sox came back and beat the Yankees, although it took two dramatic extra-inning efforts in Games 4 and 5 to do it. Biffle and Jeff Burton will need a miracle along those lines to come back and win the title. Of course, Boston came back to win, though that is in a once-in-a-100-years type of comeback. But it still can happen. Of course, after looking at Johnson's track record at Atlanta, it looks about as impossible as the Red Sox's road in 2004, as they had to beat the Yanks four straight times, including twice in New York.

Jimmie Johnson (Market value: 24.7): It's hard to describe how good Johnson has been over the past three years at Atlanta. He swept both Atlanta races last year, the second in the midst of a four-race winning streak during the Chase. He has the best average finish (5.9) among active drivers, as well as the best average running position. He has led the most laps at the track. He dominated at Fontana earlier this year, a track that's often grouped with Atlanta and Texas as similar enough that if you do well at one, you do well at the others. Johnson is the best bet this weekend.

Greg Biffle (22.3): He is coming off a pretty solid 12th at Martinsville, and now he heads to a 1.5-mile, high-banked track, which is his specialty. He finished fourth in the spring Atlanta race and was second at the most recent Fontana race. It might seem like he is in a mini-slump, but his wreck at Talladega hid the fact that he was moving to the front, and a 12th at Martinsville is one of his better finishes there. This week and next, Biffle gets two tracks where he can absolutely win. I still maintain that if he had had a decent finish at Texas three years ago, which could have been expected, he would have won the title that year instead of Tony Stewart.

Carl Edwards (23.4): He has six top-10s in eight Atlanta races, including two wins. He led 33 laps earlier this year at the track before engine trouble ended his day a little too early. Edwards is actually a little more in a slump than Biffle, but this track will cure Edwards' ails. He's still fourth in points, and he will want a better spot than that. He's a very safe call for the next two weeks.

Kyle Busch (21.9): Busch has struggled in the Chase, with only a strong finish at Charlotte as truly representative of his ability and the team's performance this season. But that's the key. He finished fourth at Charlotte. So, even during his worst struggles, Busch still can be great at the A-C-T tracks of Atlanta, Charlotte and Texas. Busch might be struggling, but he won the first Atlanta race of the year, and his finish at Charlotte proves he can still be great on this track style.

Reed Sorenson (15.1): This is a pretty deep call, especially considering Sorenson has been mostly a disappointment this season. He did score two top-10s at Atlanta in 2007, though, and has three top-10s in six total Atlanta starts. He finished 15th a few races ago at Charlotte, which also bodes well for a strong run this weekend. He's cheap enough that a top-15 finish out of Sorenson is an investment well worth it.

AJ Allmendinger (14.2): When he was driving the 84 car, Allmendinger struggled at a few different places, but the 1.5-mile tracks were his bread and butter. Ignore for a second the 43rd at Charlotte. That was a crash-induced result. Allmendinger was ninth at Kansas, 14th at Fontana and 13th at Chicago earlier this year. He has been strong when he can get the car revved up and just use a little brake into the turns. He's a little risky, but it's a good risk.

Kevin Harvick (21.2): My lowest-ranked Chaser this week, Harvick is an interesting study. He was seventh in the spring race at Atlanta and does sport a win at the track. But the win (along with another of his three top-10s) occurred in 2001. After finishing first and third in his first two races at "NASCAR's fastest track," Harvick struggled with six finishes of 31st or worse in the next 12 races. One strong finish in the spring race doesn't quite sell me that he's ready to reclaim his mojo in Atlanta. I see him as a top-15 car, but not really ready to challenge for a top-5.

Jimmie Johnson (Locked in at 22.8): Got him to begin the Chase and he has paid off big-time.
Carl Edwards (23.4): He will be money the rest of the way. Time to buy cheaply.
Greg Biffle (Locked in at 21.5): I see a repeat of Fontana here in which Biff spends much of the race trying to chase the 48 down.
Reed Sorenson (15.1): This team is built to get the three big guns with some cheap sleepers.
AJ Allmendinger (14.2): He is in pretty good equipment, which will feed his natural ability at these tracks.